Sunbelt Trails
5600 W Camelback Rd, Phoenix, AZ 85031
Operating snapshot (as reported, before your assumptions)
Model this deal
Adjust financing and growth assumptions below. Changes affect only your analysis — the underlying listing is never modified.
Assumptions
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Cash invested & reserves
Closing costs, upfront improvements, and initial reserves are added to total cash invested (they raise the cash-on-cash denominator). The annual capex reserve reduces cash flow but not NOI or cap rate — a common convention is $250–$300 per unit per year (≈ $24,200/yr here). It defaults to $0.
Model improvements (value-add)
Renovation rent premium, operational uplift, and general market-rent growth are counted separately — never combined. A large current-to-proposed rent gap is an assumption to confirm, not proof.
Downside scenario
A scenario, not a forecast.
5-year projection
Cash flow is after debt service and the annual capex reserve. Debt service is held at the current payment; the loan balloon is due in year 7.
| Year | NOI | Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $774,000 | -$247,220 |
| Year 2 | $819,230 | -$201,990 |
| Year 3 | $866,755 | -$154,464 |
| Year 4 | $916,686 | -$104,534 |
| Year 5 | $969,136 | -$52,083 |
What the numbers say
An assessment of how this deal reads under the assumptions above — not an endorsement, recommendation, or suitability determination.
Weak for current income — cash flow does not cover debt service (DSCR 0.76). It would need a lower price, more equity, or higher income to work under these assumptions.
- • Annual cash flow after reserves: -$247,220.
Not yet modeled. Open “Model improvements” and add renovation scope, costs, and target rents to assess the upside.